Oh, How the Mighty Fall

Just remember this the next time you think that your iPhone or Android is the best and that it will never ever be a turd: in 2000, Nokia's market cap was worth over $245B (with a B) and the industry was still abuzz of the infamous meetings between Bill Gates and Jorma Ollila, which pushed Nokia to form and launch Symbian. Today, Microsoft, not necessarily at the top of its game, acquired the Devices and Services business at Nokia for $5B and some access to patents for $2.2B.

10 years (maybe even 6 years ago) ago, if I had told you that Nokia would have to buy Symbian to keep it alive before eventually ditching it and licensing Microsoft Windows, then Microsoft would buy Nokia to keep it alive, you would have thought me the fool. Oh, an Blackberry is on the block for sale for pennies on the dollar.

That would have been hard to believe, but change happens. Over and over. It will happen again. As Ray Noorda said: "Cause change and lead, accept change and survive, resist change and die."

Invisible Computer

I've commented before about a book, The Invisible Computer by Donald A. Norman, that I forced myself to read about 10 years ago.  It discusses the unnecessary complexity of computers and their software, at the time, and the opportunity to embed computing in smart appliances, where the "computer" was invisible.  It would seem, at least in hindsight, that companies like Apple and Google had learned similar lessons with the advent of iPhone and Android smartphones, but one could say that, as an industry, we are still nascent in our progress.

Newer appliances, like the Nest Learning Thermostat, are excellent examples of what Mr. Norman was forecasting.  What once constituted a computer, it's memory and processing power can be found in extremely miniaturized and inexpensive silicon that are economical to integrate into consumer electronics.  Additionally interesting, that the Nest takes advantage of, is the ubiquity of connectivity in the home, via Wi-Fi, and the value that connectivity adds to a consumer device.  Controlling your thermometer from your smartphone, making it ice cold in the dead of winter for a friend or loved-one, when you are warm and cozy in a hotel room traveling for work, for example.

But for every Nest, there are 10s of examples of connected refrigerators, smart washers and connected televisions that have not found the right formula.  The idea of a connected television sounds like a slam dunk, but the video world is so complex in terms of rights and legacy, the obstacles are challenging.  What is the magic, then?  If I knew, I would be retired on the beach, so take this with a grain of salt, but in hindsight, the final answer is always: how did I do this before?  That is, these great technological advances make something so easy, that you look back at the way you did it previously, and it makes you wince.  How did I do this before?

I don't think the majority of the potential innovations that are hanging before our minds are complex.  Simplicity is key, both for the actual advancement and the user experience of the result.  Simplicity usually indicates a focus on what is most important, keeps costs down, allows for easy investor and consumer messaging, and means a normal human, like my mom, actually might understand it and be able to use it without calling her IT department: me.

Free, Easy, Angry, Loyal

Monday: Angry
Tuesday: Free
Wednesday: Easy
Friday: Loyal
Sunday: Lucia

Easy, Peasy, Fast, and Cheesy

I once had a Director, early in my career, who if nothing else, taught me that, "if it was easy, everyone would do it."  It was a motivational statement for all the hard work we had to put into a product we were working on.  His message was that stuff that is worth it normally takes hard work.  If it's easy to do, likely consumers won't be willing to pay you or pay you much for it.  The reverse is true, as well: if something is free, it has no value.

Barrier to entry is one good barometer when you are thinking about new propositions.  If it's too easy for your competitors to do the same thing, then its only a temporary advantage and not strategic.  Getting there first has advantages some times, but sometimes, being a fast follower offers you perspective of what the first did wrong.

Most great new propositions has some key differentiation that distinguishes them from legacy and the competition.  The differentiation normally adds a lot of value to the consumer and makes it tough for them to switch and tough for competition to match.  Once in a while that differentiation is so good, it disenfranchises the way things have been done historically.  Those are the gems.

Next time you are burning the midnight oil on something important, think about whether you are just running ahead of competition on the same road, or building new roads that they have yet to find or traverse.

Confident, Cookies, Cliff, Xmas

The (Short) Weekly Wrap

Tuesday: Xmas

Wednesday: Confidence

Thursday: Cliffs

Sunday: Cookies

Enjoy!

Steep Cliffs

We are all arm-chair quarterbacks when it comes to predicting the past in the digital world.  Of course AOL would tumble because of their reliance on dial-up.  MySpace?!  Seriously?!?  Everyone could see their demise.  After it happened.

I suppose if I had really good advice for predicting such future, I would be retired on a beach somewhere and not writing this blog.  Well, maybe I would still be writing this blog, but I would be more relaxed.  The reality is there is no crystal ball, but the cliffs are steep when leaders fall.  We have a hard time imagining Google or Apple or Facebook not being leaders in their space, but it's almost inevitable that their time will pass, as well.  The great companies are always reinventing themselves, because any combination of market forces, competition, technology, etc. change the environment that made them successful.  IBM did it.  Apple did it.  Nokia was renowned for attempting to reinvent itself every year, but somewhere along the way, they have stumbled and chosen the wrong path.

I once forced myself to read the book The Invisible Computer, by Donald Norman, and at the time, I worked in the computer industry.  The concepts described in this book are much of what makes Apple a leader today: embedding computers in everything, making them smart and seamless, invisible.  The book was published in 1999.  I remember thinking that the concepts that Mr. Norman discussed were interesting, but he ignored the realities of the business aspects of the market and the economies of scale that existed and the advantages they provided to the PC world.  I've learned since that those advantages go away quickly when consumers and businesses vote through their purchases.  It's happening to Nokia, and now Apple is recognized to have the advantages of economies of scale.  It's a prize you receive, if you run a tight, smart ship, when you make good products.

Great strategic leadership can help to identify the cliffs before you drive the bus off them.  Always be aware and never be content.

The Mile High Club

Blogging from 35K feet is something that you have likely only read in letters to the editor in adult magazines, but I am doing it right now.  And, I like it.  Apart from the gent to my right that is snoring incredibly, leaning on me, and just generally encroaching in my space entirely too much, I can't think of anywhere I'd rather be.

I am on the way home from ad:tech New York City, where we had two really good sessions on tablets in marketing, and in the second, we focused on innovation.  I've had a Facebook chat with an high school friend, tried, but was unsuccessful in downloading an episode of Breaking Bad, watched Return to the Planet of the Apes with no sound, fended off the large gentleman to my right, listened to several podcasts, and now I'm blogging.  These are either signs of innovation, or some form of ADD that I suffer from.

Next thing you know, they'll serve free peanuts on flights and treat you nicely.  Now, that would be innovative.

Darn Youth!

I have often said that after the introduction of the iPad, and watching how my kids interact with modern smart phones and tablets, they will look at our computing as my generation looks at mainframes and minis.  It's not that they won't use it, but it will be like my computer classes back in college, in the late 80s, when I had to do my assignment in the CS building from a terminal connected to the mini.  Why would you want to?

It's not just smartphones and tablets either.  All of the technology trends that we create that catch-on with our youth and later seep into older society.  Yet, we as adults have designed these innovations.  Is it because we know more, but still can think and act like children.  I've been accused of acting like a child, quite often, around the house, actually.

It just made me think this morning of what if we gave a design brief or creative brief to kids?  What would they come up with?  Sure, a bunch of it would be nuts, but I'd have to think there would be an awesome idea in there that most adults, no matter how much vodka, would not come up with.

Maybe we should give them an Etch-A-Sketch and let them have at it?

Innovation

On the longest and toughest days at work, it's things like Oink that can wake me up, get me pumped and remind me why I like my work and my job so much.  Innovation.  It's like a stiff drink after a long day.  It's like a unsolicited kiss on the cheek from your kids.  It's the $5 bill you find in the parking lot of the grocery store.  When it happens, it's a sure smile and new energy.

Thanks to @rfijoey for tipping me to this one yesterday.  I love the different perspective of this service.  Don't just get me to a location, help me navigate inside.  What is the place known for?  Still, like Yelp and Google, it's dependent on crowd sourcing opinions, and sometimes dog+world can give you good advice, but as has been shown through research, nothing replaces the opinion of a trusted friend or family member.  Bubs, for example, is my go-to for dining in New York City.  Should be yours, too, but she doesn't blog.

This idea of enhancing our typical web services to dig deeper, inside of the places, is not unique to Oink.  Applying electronic mapping inside of big box retailers, for example, could help consumers map their path to get in and out most efficiently.  The path data from their (opted-in) consumers could help the retailers organize their product placement.  It could help those same retailers make more contextually relevant recommendations for additional purchase, "you're going to need some jelly with that peanut butter and bread that you bought."

Specific innovations aside, it's always great to explore and see innovators in action.  Sometimes, its a hit, other times a miss.  Sometimes, it's one small step to something bigger.  And, remember, if you are not trying to disenfranchise your service, someone else is.

My Life as an Antenna

When I was a kid, we literally got a handful of television channels, over the air.  The reception was terrible, and my brother and I would lie on the floor with our feet touching the television to act as antenna to improve the signal.  We watched whatever was shown.  We actually believed the commercials.

Today, I get hundreds of channels, much more than I want, from a satellite in space.  If I'm not available to watch a show, I can record it, digitally and fast forward through the commercials, though my wife often has to remind me to do so.  I can even watch shows while away from home, anytime, via a series of tubes known as the Internets.  It does not even require me to touch it and act as an antenna.  As a result of these advances, my 5-year old daughter does not comprehend the concept of live television.  Doesn't even register.

She thinks she can play any content from any device, but I once put my mom's music on a tree.  One day, my brother and I hung my mom's Neil Diamond albums on the branches of the tree in the back yard.  We walked upstairs to our bedroom window and using his BB gun, we held target practice.  All while Bubs was in the kitchen, watching.  Proud moment in our childhood, really.  We had maybe 2 dozen albums.  Billy Joel.  Aerosmith.  David Bowie.  George Carlin.  The White Album with coffee rings on it, so it was not exactly white.

I have a lot of music today.  My iPhone holds a fraction of my collection, which still amounts to thousands of songs.  I can play them on almost any device, except the tree, and even send the music through the air to my television or my computer to play back.  I can play them in any order, and often times, my daughter would like to hear the same song over and over and over.  Devices can do this automatically, much to my dismay.

As many parents, we often reminisce about the way things were, and talk about "if our kids only knew".  Personally, I'm glad my kids aren't shooting my iPhone with a gun, while it hangs on a tree in the back yard.  They will make their own mischief, I am sure, but I actually worry more that with all the play dates and additional structure, they can't get into enough trouble to learn better.  I guess I'm not worried that new technology is a barrier to our kids growing up normally.

My grandmother, before she passed, was notorious for 15 second phone calls.  We learned not to take it personally.  I'm sure it was a remnant from when making any phone call was expensive.  Life moves on.  Our kids will adapt, just fine, thank you.  The question is, will we?

Oldie, but a Goodie

When you work around technology as much as I do and have, it's easy to get caught up in a new idea or concept and believe it will take the world by storm.  On top of slow technology adoption rates, most new concepts have ecosystem challenges that even if solved, are not solved overnight.

There is an excellent Bill Gates quote that always tempers me: "We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten. Don't let yourself be lulled into inaction."

On the one hand, don't get caught up in the hype.  On the other hand, don't be a spectator when the action begins.  Great strategic planning helps you to know what to do in the first years and how to tilt the table to your advantage for when it really matters.

So, patience is a virtue, but inactivity is a trap.

Friction

If you clicked the link to this post thinking that I was going to be talking motor oil or sexual aids, I'm going to disappoint.

As my colleague, Eric Swayne (@eswayne), likes to say: social media is not doing anything new, it reduces the friction for something that people already do.  It's a great barometer for the usefulness and value for many mobile or digital projects.  Does this reduce the friction?  Substantially?  Was there no friction to begin with?  That's probably a sign that you are not solving a real problem.

I think its a great barometer for a lot of what we do in digital and mobile marketing.  What friction are we reducing?  I was using an online ordering site for a restaurant the other night, and it took me 10 minutes to enter an order, for what takes less than 1 minute to do by phone.  The implementation on the site was pretty, but it was clearly inefficient.  It added friction, and I likely won't go back again.

The friction of finding, flipping through, and locating the number in the yellow pages became a barrier when it was easier to find the phone number of a local business on the computer.  Now, it's even easier to find it on my mobile.  Apple implements Siri on the iPhone 4S, and if it works, it will become even easier to find that same phone number.  Smaller digital friction coefficient.

Just like electricity, people will choose the path of least resistance.  What's your product's digital friction coefficient?

Saturday Morning Cartoons

As I sit here and type, at the crack of dawn this fine Saturday morning, my son's cat, Polly, sleeps, purring, on the hot-plate known as my Apple Time Capsule.  With only a peanut-sized brain, I don't expect her to have any remorse or shame for waking me up, and, if I 'm honest with myself, I've been getting up this side of the crack of dawn since I was very small.  I'm sure Bubs would be the first one to point this fact out, and she probably has a few extra gray hairs, with my names on them, to prove it.

When I was a kid, it was fun getting up Saturday morning.  Heck, I distinctly remember going out and shooting hoops in our driveway when I would wake up.  I can not imagine what our neighbors must have thought, and its shocking that I never heard from them about it.  For most of my childhood, we literally got only a handful of channels on the television.  When not torturing the neighbors with the pounding of the basketball on blacktop, I would pour myself a bowl of cereal, or cook pancakes swimming in butter, plop down in front of our television and watch whatever was shown.  There was not much choice then, especially for niches like cartoons, so you took what you got.

I watch my kids grow up today, and they really are the DVR Generation, in that regard.  My daughter truly does not understand the concept of live programming.  Sorry, Nielsen.  They have an expectation of any content, anywhere, on any device.  As a parent, it's occasionally frustrating, but as a technologist, it's fascinating.  If I think forward and assume the continued reduction of storage costs, the improvement in network throughput, and the improved services and content availability on the Internet, why not?  It's almost like that board game, Clue.  Dad watches Breaking Bad, on the toilet, with his iPhone 10.  Mom watches No Reservations, in the kitchen, on the fridge.  Junior watches Fringe, in his room, while texting and listening to Radiohead and surfing the web simultaneously, on his iPad 9S.

Why not?  As long as he keeps Polly in there with him in the morning, so I can sleep in.

iOS 5 for Digital Marketers

Listen to this guy, he knows what he's talking about:
Rockfish Mobile Blog: IOS 5: 5 Features that Marketers Will Love

Decision-Making 101

Disenfranchised!

Mobile phones have done some amazing things since their creation.  The ability to speak to someone from almost anywhere.  The first internet access to rural areas in emerging nations.  African merchants making payments via SMS to avoid being robbed while carrying money in transit.  Taking HD-quality video and sharing it instantly with friends and family.

In hindsight, it's always easy to spot the disenfranchised: pay phones, the yellow pages, digital cameras, and portable DVD players.  When you look back at how you performed the same tasks previously, you wonder how you put up with it.  I'm still amazed every time the local phone company puts the yellow pages on my porch.  Straight to the recycling bin.

So, what will be disenfranchised in the coming years because of technology?  Will NFC kill credit cards?  Will tablets kill books or even PCs?  Heck, I think our kids will look at our PCs like my generation looks at minis or mainframes.  Don't get too comfortable, or it might be you that gets disenfranchised.

When Smartphones Were Not So Smart

I remember back in 1998, when I first made the leap from the computer industry to mobile, I had advanced visions for what smartphones were going to be able to do.  I did not apparently have as much patience.

During the first years of starting the OMAP business at Texas Instruments, I remember talking to colleagues and press about a scenario where I could hail a taxi with a single click, while traveling, and the taxi would know where to pick me up, how to bill me, and how to contact me to confirm the service.  I could even have the equivalent to Dominos Pizza Tracker and know where the taxi was on its way to pick me up.  Needless to say, I'm still waiting for this service.

Smartphones actually live up to their name today, but there is so much room for innovation.  Just as I look back at 1998 like the Stone Age, we will look back at our iPhones and apps, in 10 years, and be amazed at how crude they were.